Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan cast doubt on whether current prices truly capture the potential impact of increased demand following Bitcoin’s upcoming halving based on the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH).
Hougan raised critical questions about the limitations of EMH in anticipating what the market will be like post-halving. He pointed out that while EMH suggests that Bitcoin’s current price reflects all available information, including the anticipated supply cut from the halving — it does not account for unexpected shifts in market demand.
Hougan said:
“The halving is well known, so today’s price reflects that it will occur… [but] what if future demand for bitcoin is higher than the market currently anticipates?”
The Bitwise CIO added that the market might have already priced in the direct effects of the halving, but the hypothesis cannot anticipate the level of future demand.
Hougan referenced Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller’s work, which highlights the discrepancies b
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