Bitcoin Price Action in October: A Probabilistic Overview

Bitcoin Price Action in October: A Probabilistic Overview

October has traditionally been a pivotal moment for Bitcoin’s price action. Historical data shows an enticing average price increase of 17% for the month (excluding the early, volatile years of Bitcoin). In pre-halving years, this average price fluctuation is slightly higher, around 21%.
If the same price change occurs in 2023, Bitcoin could reach somewhere between $32,000 and $33,000 in October. But will this month follow the historical trend, or is a bearish turn still possible?
October Over Time
October has been particularly bullish for Bitcoin, with an average of 17% of price increases over the years. Since 2023 is a pre-halving year, comparisons with other pre-halving years are particularly insightful.  In the pre-halving years of 2019 and 2015, the average price increase was 20%.

In 13 years of Bitcoin price action, 9 have seen increases during October. This makes another bullish October seem quite likely.
Interestingly, September, known for its bearish tendencies, has broken

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